Carbon Neutral Least Cost Power Generation in Rwanda

8.5 MW Gigawatt Global Solar Project in Rwamagana District, Rwanda

December 16, 2021. Under the USAID funded Power Africa East Africa Energy Program, the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) is assessing electricity generation scenarios through 2050 for Rwanda to support the Rwanda Energy Group (REG) and the Rwanda Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) to meet growing national energy demand and address climate stabilization and resilience, economic recovery, and investment mobilization.

CCS is modeling energy systems using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and carbon neutral scenarios with power generation from a wide range of renewable energy resources such as hydro, wind, solar, methane and waste to energy. Initial estimates of the Technical Potential for these resources in Rwanda are substantial, particularly for solar power. Scenario models include both current and emerging technologies, such as the use of agrovoltaics to enable power generation and food production at the same time, and also recognize significant effects of climate change on water resources and agriculture.

The assessment will support the ongoing update of the Rwanda Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) to position Rwanda on a pathway for long-term decarbonization of its power sector and economy. In addition to coordinating analysis with REG and MININFRA, CCS is working with the Rwanda Water Board. The assessment will be coupled with a technical capacity building program to enable REG and MININFRA staff to use the modeling tools to update results and scenario development in the future to further support capacity expansion of the power sector.